Kasatkina - Osaka.
Obviously, both players are in good form both statistically and visually. I pick Kasatkina for few reasons: experience, conditions and I think she was more tested through the tournament. Both are very young but I think Kasatkina has more experience at this stage. Osaka has never won a title. On the other hand, Kasatkina won Charleston last year and (as for my memory) she more often reaches further stages. Except Siniakova, there were more demanding opponents on Kasatkina's road to final. In Osaka's case Sharapova, Radwańska and Pliskova for sure were not in optimal form and Halep admitted that she "didn't know what happened" and that "she was not there". Halep argue that she had to wait too long for a match, she was not used to late matches in course of this tournament and this was probably the reason why she has lost focus. Osaka, in contrast, had many late matches during this tournament but the final will be played earlier which (I think) Kasatkina is more used to. There can be another factor linked with an earlier time of the match - in hotter conditions, the court in Indian Wells is even more bouncy after spinny ballas which favour players playing with more spin (like CSN, Sevastova, Arrubarena, Sakkari, Kerber and ..... Kasatkina).
TIP: Kasatkina -0,5 game @1,91 stake: 3/5
Result: 3-6, 2-6
-3j
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