Hi guys. This is the first post from new series of "Weekly Wrap-ups", that I have planned for some time. In the passing week-12, we played in Miami, and betting-wise this week was very, very frustrating for me. As a whole March, frankly speaking. Below you can find a small report of this week's released tips with my comments.
There were 11 tips resulted in 3(wins)-6(lost)-2(push). Yield -29% is just disastrous, and indicate that something went completely wrong. From the probability point of view, such a result has a little chance to occur, especially considering my long-term yield about 7-8%. As you can see (and read in comments' column) there were some strange results in this week. At least 3 misses were very, very close to switch into hits. By making such a sensitivity analysis, by changing at least 2 of these 3 misses to hits, the yield would be -5% flat and -2% in stakes, which is still not good, but normal in weak periods. (I talking about tip no. 7 and 9).
I don't want to make silly excuses... my intention is to put this results in some perspective and show how shaky the final result can be. The main reason for this analysis is not to excuse myself in front of you, but in particular to understand what went wrong, what I did wrong, where can I improve or even to check if my method is still working.
Summing up the main reason for the poor results was unexpected shifts in player's form. Could I see it earlier …? Maybe in the case of Pavlyuchenkova and Puig** I could but in case of Dodin or Hercog, it came out of nowhere.
**(private bets that you can't see here)
Summing up the main reason for the poor results was unexpected shifts in player's form. Could I see it earlier …? Maybe in the case of Pavlyuchenkova and Puig** I could but in case of Dodin or Hercog, it came out of nowhere.
**(private bets that you can't see here)
I always say: not WTA but WTF :)
ReplyDeleteIt's not so bad. If you e.g analyse (what I call) "odds efficiency", there is no difference with ATP. Other words, upsets in ATP are equally likley. It's just a delusion that WTA is so unpredictable, I think mainly because men hold serve better. But is not true that upsets are more likely in women tennis. It's all include in odds.
ReplyDeleteI follow yours tips on OMbet. Generally good job but I personally avoid to bet big favourite with handi
ReplyDeleteYes, I know. Thanks :)) I hope for better results. This March have been the worst month since I established the method I currently use. Long term yield should be around 7-10%.
ReplyDelete