WTA Moscow 2018 - GO DEEP/GO DOWN LIST & daily recaps [+1,7]

Ok, it's time for the next GO DEEP/GO DOWN lists as for week 42. I picked the bigger tournament in Moscow. Not easy one - some players are coming back from injuries, some others are in quite good form but don't like particularly play indoor... Quite a riddle, but I've made my mind and here are the lists:



WTA Moscow 2018 (867,766 $, indoors, women)
GO DEEP list: Sasnovich, Kontaveit, Sevastova, Zvonareva(if qualify)
GO DOWN list: Mladenovic, Rybarikova, Konta, Grammatikopoulou(if qualify)

*final RECAP after SF
Sevastova turned out to be a bomb, 0-4 ATS in the whole tournament... In SF she was beaten by sensational Jabeur. Konta finally went down with homie Kasatkina, thus on the last day, we are 1-1 ATS. In total, in this tournament, the "method" (GDGD lists) scored 12-9 ATS and potential +1,32 unit of profit, which is pretty decent. Again GO_DOWN list came out more effective than GO_DEEP list - maybe it's easier to predict who will not be successful than who will win the tournament. I don't know yet - we will with the little more time. At the same time, there are some flaws in this method which become more and more obvious. First of, usually there are few others players who were not included on the lists but are let's say either in-form or out-of-form, and who are risky to bet against. So the lists are a fine idea but maybe it would be advisable to omit some matches with "risky" players... Second thing is that sometimes it becomes evident that the pick was not good, that something is developing in the wrong direction - player doesn't feel well in this week, injuries, MTO's or evident lack of motivation which I haven't predicted while constructing the lists. In this cases there also should be in place some kind of plan B... I have some ideas how to address these two issues but it would complicate the method... holding to the fixed lists from beginning to the end has some flaws but in the same time has an advantage - it's simple and readable.


*Daily RECAP after QF (edited: 19.10.2018 11:49:))
A decent day for our "system". Sasnovich was beaten by Konta but just by one game (spread was around +3games) and that make a day... Kontaveit unfortunately lost to stellar Jabeur who apparently got a momentum after shaky qualifications stage. And yet just one word of comment for those who trace this "GDGD-lists system", for there were two interesting cases form "the system" perspective: 1) a match between two players form go-deep list, which logically was omitted in the free picks and 2) a match between player from go-deep list (Sasnovich) and go-down list (Konta) which was doubled in the free picks (stake 4 instead of regular 2).


*Daily RECAP after round of 16 (edited: 17.10.2018 20:59:))
It was near-perfect round for "the lists", ended up 6-1 ATS !! Only Sevastova didn't cover the spread, although she eventually won the match. Pity, considering she was set and break up... Sasnovich and Zvonareva scored huge wins being underdogs, Kontaveit did a decent job. From the GO_DOWN list only Konta is still in the game after beating Gavrilova (but not covering the spread:). 

*Daily RECAP after round of 32 (edited: 16.10.2018 11:47:))
Not very fortunate first round, only Sasnovich covered the spread, both Sevastova and Kontaveit won their matches but with troubles. Additionally, there was a match between GO DEEP list player (Sevastova) and GO DOWN list player (Rybarikova) and Sevastova won only by 3 games (spred=4games), so we must count two misses :( So in total, we are 1-3 ATS after this first round. REMEMBER that GO DEEP/GO DOWN list is a very young project. Although I have an intuition that it may succeed, it's not really tested. So be careful with these free tips and manage your bankroll properly. Paid tips are much stronger at least in terms of statistical significance.