I don't like to cover Slams or big tournaments with GDGD method. I am overwhelmed by the number of options... But since the method was so successful in February I decided to give it a little more credit. As I remember from previous years the courts in Indian Wells are rather slow and the ball bounces a little higher, which can be a little bit tricky for some players. Conditions are a little bit clay alike or maybe this too bold statement:). I picked some players with respect to the recent form, but the situation is not obvious since some of them can be overheated a little bit like Brady, WangY., Bencic, Kenin, Golubic, Uytvanck...They have many matches under their belt in the last two weeks, maybe too many... On the other hand, there was a quite long break especially when considering that some girls didn't play during Middle East swing and later on in smaller tournaments in Budapest or Acapulco. So their form is a little bit mystery and maybe it would be wiser to wait for two rounds or something but this is not how the GDGD method works... Dipping into the unknown is inevitable:)
So here are my predictions:
(After the second look at the draw, I have made some changes on go-down list, I have crossed off McNally and added Brengle ..sorry for that) GO DEEP list: Bertens, Pliskova, Halep
GO DOWN list: Mladenovic, Krunic,
Recap after 2R: There were quite a few upsets and strange results in Indian Wells so far, but my lists are holding up quite well. I am really surprised how it works in this year or maybe I should say how it works at all because I just started late in 2018 with this method covering just two tournaments last year. I didn't expect it would work so well in terms of betting results, but let's wait to draw any conclusions since about 2/3 of the season is in front of us. After two rounds all the players form down list are out of the tournament but they meet with very unstable opponents in the first round and they both, not on our side, covered the spread. Stosur was just horrible against Brengle, I haven't seen her smashing racquet on the ground for a long time (or at all). Fortunately, both went down in 2R, but Sevastova lost her focus and won by 5 games not covering the spread. Overall players from "down list" were 2-1-2 ATS. On the other hand, none of the players form the "up list" played in 1R cos they were seeded and in the 2R they ale covered spread in their matches. Bertens defeated Linette in straight sets 64 61, Halep patchy as always but delivered the win over Strycova 62 64, and Pliskova who couldn't find the rhythm in the first set but eventually won by safe margin 67 61 61. I like the matchups in the next round so I will give them a try and don't plan to quit any match in 3R
Recap after 3R: I am with my kid at home, so even not much time to write sth sensible. It was a good round for "the method"...again... I am still impressed how well it works, cos it looks easy but I have been doing WTA handicapping for a few years now and I know that it's nowhere near easy, so thus I am surprised. Halep is one of the most annoying players on the tour, at least for me - I usually feel that she could play better but somehow she doesn't want to. At some point in the first set, she was 1/9 at breakpoint conversion and her opponent 3/3. She was imo very inconsistent, losing focus in key moments and then breaking Kozlova easily a moment later. Bertens did the job but the -2 spread was very attractive and frankly speaking I didn't expect Konta to play that good. She served well, her forehand was a crispy and powerful weapon at times and she proofed that if everything clicks together then she has big game. The matchups for R16 present interesting and I think there are better-than-even chances so I don't plan to exclude any match... let's see what will happen. The method is 7-3 ATS for now so there is some surplus, which gives me comfort to try another round.
Recap after R16: A horrible round, 0-3 ATS and both Bertens and Halep are packing to Miami (probably). Pliskova won but only by 3 games. I saw a part of Halep's match and she looked disgusted by her own game (alike in 3R). She had a huge problem to hold the serve, at one point in the first set I saw a statistic that she was broken 4 times out of 4 attepts... This round was very weak for GDGD method, but overall there is still 7-6 ATS so not a tragedy. Yesterday it was 7-3 and I wrote about the surplus:), well ... today it's gone. There is only Pliskova in the game left and she meets red-hot Bencic in QF. I quess there is too much risk involed and I will quit that match. Let's see what will happend.
Recap after QF(final): Game over, the last player from the lists leaves the tournament. Bencic was too strong and this time my intuition was accurate to quit that match. As I said in the short preview of this tournament, I took Bencic into consideration, but I predicted that she can be a little overheated after winning Doha. It hasn't worked out and she has won 12 consecutive matches and still looks very sharp. She will be tough opponent for Kerber in the next match and then potentially in the final. Overall the GDGD method has performed quite OK, 7-6 ATS and -0,1 of profit is a neutral result. It's becoming clearer and clearer that it's much easier to predict only about two rounds ahead, and also the results show that - after covering 8 tournaments since 2018 October, I am 46-27 ATS in first two rounds and only 19-17 ATS in the further rounds.
Matches (all these matches you can find on my blogabet, marked as "GDGD"):
6.3.2019 1R down Anisimova-4,5 Krunic *WIN
8.3.2019 2R deep Halep-5,5 Strycova *WIN
8.3.2019 2R deep Bertens-5 Linette *WIN
9.3.2019 2R dwon Osaka-4,5 Mladenovic *WIN
9.3.2019 2R deep Pliskova-5 Doi *WIN
10.3.2019 3R deep Bertens-2 Konta *WIN
11.3.2019 3R deep Pliskova-5,5 Bonaventure *WIN
7.3.2019 1R down Zheng+0,5 Mladenovic *MISS
7.3.2019 1R down Stosur-1,5 Brengle *MISS
10.3.2019 3R deep Halep-6 Kozlova *MISS
12.3.2019 R16 deep Bertens-2 Muguruza *MISS
12.3.2019 R16 deep Halep-4,5 Vondrousova *MISS
12.3.2019 R16 deep Pliskova-4 Kontaveit *MISS
9.3.2019 2R down Sevastova-5 Brengle *PUSH
Matches that I omitted, and was not published on blogabet as a free picks
14.3.2019 QF deep Pliskova+0,5 Bencic *MISS
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