WTA - February wrap-up [-1,6] and overdue January wrap-up [+2,8]

February was tough for my "paid picks" and needs some comment. In total it was 15-2-13 ATS (15 wins, 2 pushes, 13 misses), so with 54% it could be a moderate month for a regular handicapper. Just to remind, all these picks you can find on Omnibet (independent verification portal) and also on blogabet as a "Private Picks". (my blogabet account is currently closed by some fuc... anti-spam bot). It could be a moderate month but it's NOT... mostly due to picks and stakes structure, which results from a complexity of my current predicting model. I take into account a few main factors and a few another, let's call them supplementary factors, of less importance. Only if the main factors could give two possible outcomes than you can imagine how many combinations may occur. Depending on how main (and subsidiary) factors confluence each other it creates my predictions which are not the same in terms of assessment of probability. To simplify it a little bit, I divide these predictions into two groups, which you can observe in stakes I use. In short, predictions with stake 5 are stronger IMO, and these with stake 4 are "weaker". (but still strong enough to take a try).
February was really weak for my 5-units predictions, only 5-9 ATS (36%), frankly it was one of the worse if not the worst month since I run this model. In contrary 4-units predictions went well, 10-4 ATS (71%) is, in fact, more than a good result. So once again, in total 15-13 ATS, but as it's reported on Omnibet there was a loss of 7.16 units, divided by 4,5 (an average stake) equals to -1,6 units FLAT. Of course I am not happy with these results, there were some crazy/strange matches among the 5-units predictions and I found some explanation for myself, but I will not go into details right now. Fact is the fact - there is a loss in February..., one thing to sugar the pill is the fact that overall 15-13 ATS is not that bad...
And of course, it was extraoridnary month for my free picks..., the GDGD method produced +7,8 units flat while covering tournaments in Doha, Budapest and Acapulco.

*And a few words about January, which started quite good and ended up with 27-21(56%) ATS and about +2,8 units FLAT. The method/model was the same as in February, but you can encounter 2-units picks there. Frankly speaking, I don't remember now what I meant by that then, but there are only five of them (2-3 ATS) and are rather insignificant. When it comes to stake structure, January feature 17 5-units picks: 10-7 ATS(59%) and 26 4-units picks: 15-11 ATS(57%). These numbers are pretty much an average compared to what I observed in the previous months while running my model (or in back-tests).


0 comments:

Post a Comment