For start a reminder who was on the lists in week 8/20:
Hot list: Halep; Mertens; Brady; Mugu; Kontaveit; Kenin; Rybakina; Pliskova
Not list: Svitolina, Sevastova,
Not list, if QF: Strycova, Martic
Basically in the recap table below you will see all matches that picked player played in. Some exceptions are possible, eg. in week 8/20 Strycova and Martic were put on sub-list "not, if QF", so in the table below you won't see their 1-2 round's matches, only from quarter-final stage.
So in the table you can find information such as date, round, players, "side" means just which player I played on in a given order, then "exclusions" and info if the prediction is a win or miss (1 or 0).
In "side" column you may notice a sign "eo", which usually means the two players from hot list are to play each other and this match will be naturally excluded.
Please don't worry about the "exclusions" section marked by yellow frame - this is my own mumbo-jambo and in short it represents different types of collisions with my other models or concepts. I am showing it here to a) be transparent and b) it clarifies a little bit the transitions from the "raw subset" to final picks posted on twitter/blogabet.
HoN #001 Brady to win @ 1,84
HoN #002 Kontaveit-3 Martic @ 1,9
HoN #003 Rybakina -1,5 Martic @ 1,877
So the result of the raw subset was 4 units, ROI 27% and the result of posted picks was 0.8 units and also ROI 27%. These two metrics I will put in the title of the post when the week is over and added up. (This week you will see: raw:+4; posted:+0.8) Looks like week 8/20 was pretty good mostly due to Rybakina.
I know that this method has some flaws. I am aware that I can be accused of manipulations, especially at the beginning of the week when I work on a tight schedule and have to analyze many matches and I am often late with publishing the lists. But as I said before if I would cheat then mostly myself...For you guys posted picks are all it counts and they are/will be on time and verified by blogabet (probably there are some ways to manipulate twitter posts, but just don't know twitter that much and I am not aware of it)
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