GO DEEP list: Wang Y., Anisimova
GO DOWN list: Konta, Buzarnescu
Recap after 1R: This time the first round was not so kind (Budapest can't last forever :)). Especially the down list haven't worked out - both Konta and Buzarnescu won their matches and in style covering the spreads. Buzarnescu meets with Andreescu in the next round I think that she is born to hang here... but Konta got lucky a little bit, because in the other match Anisimova retired and Konta will meet with qualifier Flink and probably with Vekic or Mchale in the following round. I am not sure here... I worry that Konta can get too much momentum after two wins (Siegemund and potentially Flink) which can translate to higher spread coverage ratio than I expected. Thus I will omit Konta in the R16 with Flink and maybe even remove from the list after R16 - there is such a possibility, as I mentioned before the GDGD method is still young and I will introduce some improvements from time to time.
Recap after R16: There is the interesting/strange situation after R16... as I said I omitted Konta, who won relatively easy with Flink and there is a risk that she's gathered some momentum and I plan to omit her also in QF with Vekic. I think there is no use to continue bet against Konta. I thought that she will clash with Anisimova but the American retired in the first round. In the second match related to go-down list, as expected Buzarnescu went down with the Canadian prospect Andreescu. On the second leg, I mean go-deep list, there is also intrigue situation - Wang Y. advanced to R16 due to Puig retirement but surprisingly she will meet Haddad who eliminated number one seed Stephens(!). I haven't seen it coming and counted on the match with overestimated Stephens. I don't like this match-up with leftie Haddad so I decided to let this match go. So it looks like this tournament is over for me... or rather for GDGD method :)
Recap after QF: Ehh.. it turned out that quitting this round was not a good idea, but of course more data will be needed to state if quitting/omitting some matches is a good strategy or not. Last night definitely it was not :). Maybe Konta got some momentum but not enough for in-form Vekic and Wang Y. handled Haddad relatively easy, though the first set was very tight. So in sum, I omitted two wins yesterday :( WangY. is still in play and meets Vekic in SF, after short analysis I will give it a try, I think that chances to cover +4 spread are higher than 50% for her...
Recap after the final: Well, well, well ...for the second time in a row I picked the winner of the tournament, I mean by that, that one of the players from the go-deep list won the event. WangY. defeated both Vekic in SF and Kenin in F in three-setters. She was an underdog in these matches so naturally, she covered the spreads. I can't say much about these matches since I haven't watched it due to the difference in time zones. Picking winners in two tournaments in a row is a quite surprise to me, even more, because it was never my intention when designing this method. It's very unlikely to pick the winner so I prefer to focus on max three rounds ahead and try to predict the spread coverage in particular matches. What will happen later after QF stage is really hard to say, but it happened to go my way this time again... anyway all is recorded on blogabet, if you filter picks archive by stakes, then 2/10 represent GDGD method...(or rather it was recorded, since today morning anti-spam bot has closed my account on blogabet, probably because I put my email in the description. It is fuc... annoying but right now I am stuck with them).
Afterall, although (let's say) I picked the winner, this tournament was a little bit tricky for the GDGD method.. there were some unexpected retirements in first rounds and that confused me about the situation's development. Thus I quit some games at R16 and QF stage, as it turned out later this decision wasn't in my favor. Overall, the results are 4-2 ATS (OK form me), and 2-1 ATS among omitted matches, and +1,5 units flat, every result over 1 unit per tournament I take with satisfaction.
Matches (all these matches you can find on my blogabet, marked as "GDGD"):
25.2.2019 1R deep Wang Y.-2,5 Bouzkova *WIN
27.2.2019 R16 down Andreescu-3 Buzarnescu *WIN
1.3.2019 SF deep WangY.+4,5 Vekic *WIN
2.3.2019 F deep WangY.+3 Kenin *WIN
26.2.2019 1R down Siegemund+5 Konta *MISS
26.2.2019 1R down Gavrilova-2 Buzarnescu *MISS
26.2.2019 1R deep Anisimova-4,5 Flink *push
Matches that I omitted, and was not published on blogabet as a free picks
27.2.2019 R16 down Flink+5 Konta *MISS
28.2.2019 QF down Vekic+0,5 Konta *WIN
28.2.2019 QF deep Wang Y.+1,5 Haddad *WIN
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