Last time I covered a tournament with my GDGD method was Lugano in Aprill... since then I have distinguished some interesting factor and it took me time to integrate it to my predicting models. I must say that for some time I have been a little bit overwhelmed by the crisscross data patterns and my thinking wasn't as clear as I wish, thus I stopped publishing GDGD post until I felt that I have straightened up my decision process to the degree that I am comfortable with it. So here I go again... my picks for 2019 Mallorca (on grass) are:
GO DEEP list: Riske, Bencic, Zheng S.
GO DOWN list: Badosa, Cornet
Recap after 2R: What a comeback! What a disaster....0-5 ATS and little hope for next rounds. This comeback was really unfortunate or maybe partially I have made some mistakes which I could have omitted. But it is easier to say afterward since the probability assessment changes after the event... I refer mainly to Riske's performance - what she did was probably tanking. She won a tournament in the Netherlands just before Mallorca and probably I should have predicted that she may be up to sth to save energy for Wimbledon since the grass courts are her favorite... if she has signed up for Eastbourne then I am even more sure that she underperformed in this first-round match with Badosa...The match was really strange to me, Riske was losing an advantage on several occasion and was not very engaged, for sure not so fresh like in the Netherlands a week before. So this way GDGD method scored two misses straight away for Badosa was also on the go-down list. *I haven't seen Sorribes with Cornet, but 06 16 on home soil where she played 2 decent matches in qualification and with Cornet who is not in best shape and grass is her least favorite surface..it's a really weird result for me. *Zheng played a decent match and I guess this was a fair miss :), but in Bencic's case lack of rhythm was very visible - much more than I expected and maybe I should have tried a lower handicap which is a good tactic when a player has not much game rhythm.
The first round was strange and that was completely confirmed by the second round matches because results came back to normal I would say. Cornet and Badosa, from the go-down list, lost their matches easily although Garcia lost her focus lost the 2set being 5-2 in the front (!!). There was still sth wrong with Bencic cos she lost 1set to Rogers also being 5-2 in front (5-2 >> 5-7 !!), but the American retired eventually. So there is only Benic left in the game and I have really mixed feelings about her. But since Anisimova doesn't look very confident on the grass I guess I will give Bencic a try in hope that she's gained some rhythm which was not there in first rounds.
Recap after QF: Benic finally got some rhythm and defeated (uncomfortable on grass I think) Anisimova 62 62. Next, she faces Kerber and I think it will be a too strong opponent for her in these circumstances so I will quit that game. If she wins with Kerber, which is doubtful, then maybe I will give her a chance in the final.
Recap after SF: Well, well, well... So it happened what was less probable in my opinion. Bencic returned from the dead after trailing 26 in the first set and somehow she defeated (I would say) unlucky Kerber. Why unlucky - cos she had like 5 break points and couldn't convert any of them, meanwhile Bencic had maybe two chances to break and took one of them. The match was very even, and as for me, Kerber had the advantage for most of the time but she lost. In the final Bencic meets Kenin and as I said in the previous recap I will give her a chance. Maybe although this was a quite unfortunate contest for GDGD method, I will be able to pick a winner again:) like in Budapest, Acapulco and Miami...
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